Iran - Israël

[MS Galileo]

Certains vols d'Air France ont soit été détourné plus au nord pour éviter le survol de la mer rouge soit ils sont retournés aux aéroports de provenance ou voir même carrément annulé/reporté .

https://x.com/airlivenet/status/1853169248241361011

https://x.com/airplusnews/status/1853138892075020604

[ironclaude]

Je ne me souviens pas qu'on en ait parlé sur ce Forum... Mais, dans le no de Novembre d'Air Force Monthly, il est dit que lors des raids du 1er Octobre menés par l'Iran contre Israel, les Iraniens auraient frappé une base aérienne (ca a été dit) et, selon deux infos, détruit plusieurs F-35 et/ou en auraient endommagé (sans autre précision) jusqu'à une vingtaine
C'est la première fois que je tombe sur cette info, est-ce qu'elle est authentique ? Est-ce que les Iraniens auraient vraiment cette capacité ?

[Dédale]

Vu qu'Israel regorge de journalistes et que cette base aérienne est bien entendu en surface, je serais étonné que ce soit vrai et que nous ne l'ayons pas appris.

[Deltafan]

Je ne me souviens pas qu'on en ait parlé sur ce Forum... Mais, dans le no de Novembre d'Air Force Monthly, il est dit que lors des raids du 1er Octobre menés par l'Iran contre Israel, les Iraniens auraient frappé une base aérienne (ca a été dit) et, selon deux infos, détruit plusieurs F-35 et/ou en auraient endommagé (sans autre précision) jusqu'à une vingtaine
C'est la première fois que je tombe sur cette info, est-ce qu'elle est authentique ? Est-ce que les Iraniens auraient vraiment cette capacité ?

Article The War Zone du 4 octobre 2024, avec le titre : Clearer Picture Of Damage To Israeli Airbase From Iranian Ballistic Missiles Emerges

https://www.twz.com/air/clearer-picture ... es-emerges

Satellite images of Israel’s Nevatim Air Base reveal details of the level of destruction Iran achieved in its ballistic missile barrage on October 1 but also fail to provide any evidence to back up claims from Tehran about the destruction of Israeli Air Force F-35I Adir stealth fighters.
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Of the around 180 ballistic missiles — including ones of notably advanced design — launched by Iran earlier this week, a significant number landed in Israel, succeeding in overwhelming the country’s extensive anti-ballistic missile umbrella. This is in contrast to the Iranian attacks in April, during which only very few missiles — mainly of older design — managed to leak through. In that attack, long-range one-way attack drones were also layered into the attack. This time it was strictly a ballistic missile affair, which makes sense considering the poor performance of the drones.

Iran claimed that the missiles in the latest attack were directed at key Israeli military facilities including the Mossad headquarters, air defense radars, and two key air bases: Nevatim and Tel Nof.
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Nevatim Air Base has been very prominent in terms of Iranian claims of success, while subsequent satellite imagery sheds light on what actually happened there. So far, equivalent imagery from Tel Nof Air Base has not become available. Partial cloud cover has limited the output of high-resolution imagery since the strike. Israel has claimed that its air operations were not impacted by the strikes.

In the meantime, open-source intelligence and imagery analysts have been poring over the satellite images of Nevatim, which houses the IAF prized F-35 fleet and electronic support aircraft, as well as airlifters and other aircraft. According to Decker Eveleth, a strategic forces analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses (CAN), a U.S. nonprofit research and analysis organization, these reveal “at least 33 likely impact craters, with likely more impacts currently obscured by clouds.” The total number of impacts is therefore probably closer to 40, Eveleth contends. This is a significant number and especially notable when compared with Iran’s attacks in April, which succeeded in only five confirmed missile impacts at Nevatim.

What’s not entirely clear is what exactly Iran was targeting at Nevatim Air Base and whether the warheads that impacted there were intended to hit specific hangars, buildings, or other particular points and failed to do so. Eveleth does note some impact ‘clustering’ around areas including revetments and fighter hangars, though this isn’t conclusive. Still, one hangar was clearly destroyed.
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In his analysis of what the latest missile barrage against Nevatim Air Base actually achieved, Eveleth concludes that the answer is “not much.” “Most of the impact zones either missed entirely or simply hit the taxiways around the base, most of which has now been repaired. They did score some hits on one refueling aircraft hangar and a couple buildings,” he continues. A support building at the southern end of the base certainly was hit, destroying a part of it, while another building on the eastern side of the base was also hit, and shows signs of likely heavy damage. There is also a closely grouped number of impacts around an aircraft storage area, although these aircraft are parked in the open, suggesting they may be no longer active.

As for the highly prized F-35s — 20 of which were destroyed, according to some Iranian reports — the damage here seems to be largely limited to some craters adjacent to a row of shelters that house the aircraft, although its possible limited damage to concealed airframes did occur. One of the shelters seems to have received some damage, perhaps due to a direct hit, with suggestions of a small hole in the roof. It’s unclear what happened here, but Eveleth suggests it may have been a warhead that failed to explode.

Even if more warheads had hit the shelters and detonated, there’s a high probability the majority of the F-35s would have survived anyway, since they were almost certainly airborne in advance of the missile attack. On the evening of the strikes, almost all Israeli Air Force tankers were airborne off the coast, suggesting they were involved in topping up combat aircraft that had scrambled from their bases. F-35s would have been prioritized assets for tanker support in order to save them from potential destruction on the ground. Of all the aircraft Iran would target, they would be at the top of the list as they pose the most threat to the regime and are highly prized by the IAF.

Still, some are claiming that all of the F-35s would have vacated the base before the missiles arrived. This is nearly an impossible notion. All fighter aircraft, and especially highly complex 5th generation types, take a vast amount of constant maintenance. A portion of the fleet would be down for deep servicing, waiting on parts, and other issues at any given time, making it impossible for them to fly out. You can read our in-depth article on this reality here. Still, some grounded jets could still be moved to unlikely locations around the base in many instances to help protect them if there was time to do so.

The base took a lot of hits, which suggests that Israel’s ballistic missile defenses were, at least to some degree, overwhelmed. (...). The lack of damage may be due to the inherent difficulties in targeting an air base at such a long distance or may point to a high level of failures and low level of accuracy of Iran’s longer-ranged ballistic missiles. It’s always possible Iran could intentionally have chosen target areas, not specific structures or objects, to go after in order to decrease the likelihood of a major counter-attack while still accomplishing their propaganda goals at home and throughout the Middle East. Still, this seems like a less likely possibility.

We also need to factor in Israeli efforts to defend against Iranian missile strikes beyond using its ballistic missile defenses — and those of allies. Israel will almost certainly have also employed electronic warfare, such as GPS disruption and “left of launch” tactics to degrade Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities via non-kinetic means. It could also simply be that, on this occasion, Nevatim Air Base — and Israel — did indeed get lucky.
(...)